The Myth of Neutrality: Countries Will Have to Choose Between the U.S. & China

As the CEO of CNAS (Center for a New American Security – one of the nation’s premier defense & national security think-tanks), Richard Fontaine has long highlighted the growing economic, political and military challenges of China. Prior to CNAS, as foreign policy advisor to Senator John McCain and in leadership roles at the State Department & the National Security Council, he analyzed the expanding competition between China & the U.S.

Now, as the U.S.-Chinese rivalry intensifies, Fontaine argues that other countries increasingly confront the dilemma of siding with either Washington or Beijing. This is not a choice that most countries wish to make. Over the past decades, foreign capitals have come to enjoy security and economic benefits from association with both the United States and China. These countries know that joining a coherent political-economic bloc would mean forgoing major benefits from their ties to the other superpower.

It is true that Washington does not insist on an all-or-nothing, us-versus-them choice from even its closest partners. Given the extensive links that all countries—including the United States—have with China, attempting to forge a coherent anti-China bloc would be unlikely to succeed. No country wants to be forced into a binary decision between the two powers.

But it may not be possible much longer for countries to simply sit on the fence. When it comes to a host of policy areas, including technology, defense, diplomacy, and trade, Washington and Beijing are, indeed, forcing others to take sides. Countries will inevitably be caught up in superpower rivalry, and they will be required to step across the line, one way or another. The U.S.-Chinese competition is an inescapable feature of today’s world, and Washington should stop pretending otherwise.

Instead, the U.S. must work to make the right choices as attractive as possible. Washington should make it easy for countries to support the U.S. on the issues that matter most and provide positive, realistic alternatives to what China has on offer.